A New System Dynamics Distr ibution Networ k Simulation Model with Uncer tain Demands for Analyzing Lead Times Effect

Resumen

In this paper, lead times effects on the supply chain networks while there is uncertainty in demand defined by probabilistic distribution are investigated. Real distribution networks consists of some segments that behavior of each segment can affect whole network. Regularly, the behaviors are not linear and expectable and one parameter can have very bad effect on results of the problem. Therefore, system dynamics simulation can be useful to study the behavior and relationships within a supply chain. Demand is one of the most important parameter involving in whole distribution network, so fluctuation in this parameter can affect all the consequent deductions. In an uncertain demand situation, lead times and their coordination between them are going to be more important and especially in this paper, they are considered precisely. One case is described to define the simulation modeling better. The results show that lead times have significant effect on behavior of whole network.